Any risk averse person will tell you to not put all yours eggs in the same basket, because if you stumble and drop the basket, all the eggs in the basket will likely get broken. In the case of cryptography and the advancement in Quantum Computing, it is a precautionary tale to listen to.
NIST has been deciding on quantum resistant algorithms which will become the next generation of cryptographic standards. However, as scrutiny focuses on the select few, we have seen successful attacks on some of the contestants. Furthermore, quantum computers are based on a different computation power than current classical system. So, there is a risk that the new standards might become quantum vulnerable in the future. What happens then?
Well, ensure your eggs are distributed in several baskets, that is, be conscious of risk diversification. NIST and many others advocate for crypto-agility i.e. set the encryption in such a way that if the method fails, one can easily and quickly switch to another technique. Another way to distribute the risks might be to use double or triple encryption on your critical asset. Lets also not forget that encryption is one part of cybersecurity. To keep data in-transfer and data in storage protected for example, the network and storage used have to be secured by investing in firewalls, using VPNs, ensuring system are up-to-date, installing antiviruses etc. So layering security methods, using multiple encryption and ensuring crypto-agility are some of the things to consider. Security officers have always appraised the totality of a system when ensuring protection of assets but now, they have to add a flavour of quantum computing to their strategies.
We don’t fully know yet how the technology will evolve. It would likely be used as both offensive and defensive tools in the future. For now, we can imagine and we can prepare by eliminating single point of failures and having redundancies built in the system.
And, if the worse case scenario – that a system is quantum vulnerable and gets compromised – happens, what can then be done? Report it? Think of legal and reputational repurcussions? Find a way to change the value of the compromised data? It is a hard question and each group has to make their own contingency plan based on the value of their assets.